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Our Publications on Economics
The Role of Normal Cost in Stabilizing Illinois’ Pension System
One of the most important concepts in public pension finance is Normal Cost—the annual cost of benefits earned by employees in a given year. Understanding Normal Cost, both for employees and for the State of Illinois as the employer, is essential for evaluating the sustainability of the pension system. What is Normal Cost? For the…
The State Pension Fund with the lowest funded ratio: GARS
The General Assembly Retirement System (GARS) was established in 1947 to provide lawmakers and certain members of the executive branch with a mechanism to save for retirement. Like Illinois’ other four state‑run pension systems, GARS is structured as a defined benefit plan, offering guaranteed lifetime pensions based on salary and years of service. Because the…
Mid-year update on the State Pension System
Illinois pensions remain significantly underfunded, but the trajectory has improved over the last several years due to full statutory payments, supplemental contributions, and strong investment markets. Earlier this year in February, Gov. Pritzker announced a path to full funding by 2048, building on a 2024 multi-tiered pension plan and recent credit upgrades. The administration plans…
U of I Flash Index shows uptick in Illinois economy for May
The University of Illinois’ Flash Index, a measure of the overall performance of the Illinois economy, recently reported an increase after four straight months of decline. The Flash index is “the weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending, and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and…
The economics of Chicago’s Italian Beef Sandwich
Italian beef sandwiches have been a staple of Chicago cuisine, but with the popularity of the tv show The Bear it has elevated its presence on the national scene. So much so that there has been a growing appetite within the General Assembly to make it the national sandwich of Illinois. The origin of the…
Illinois lagged behind rest of nation in manufacturing output in April
Federal Reserve data recently reported that industrial production in the United States increased 0.6 percent in the month of April. Remarkably, this was the fourth straight month showing a gain. While this news presents optimism for the nation as a whole, recent data from the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMI) indicates a contraction of the…
Over $16 billion in infrastructure help coming for Illinois
Congress has passed President Biden’s landmark $1 trillion infrastructure bill which will provide aid to states to help build bridges, maintain roads, construct broadband access, and much more. While it is still to be determined how much money Illinois will be exactly receiving, Senators Durbin and Duckworth have noted the following: It should also be…
Eek! Gas prices
One national issue that normally hits home locally is gas prices. We feel the effect of these prices daily: commuting to work, traveling out of state, and driving to the grocery store and restaurants. These high gas prices cut into what goods and services we would otherwise spend money on. Economics aside, it goes without…
Illinois’ Improved Fiscal Outlook (Through Charts)
This past legislative session was regarded as a major improvement to the fiscal condition of the State of Illinois. Many media organizations reported that with the help of the much needed American Rescue Plan (ARP) funds, as well as enhanced economic activity from the pandemic’s end in sight, Illinois (oddly) seems to (finally) be on…
Prairie State Policy 